Beta & stock returns by industry: Did the 2020 recession lead to a fundamental change in stock market behavior
Last updated: December 14, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on the U.S. economy and the stock market. The pandemic caused a brief but deep U.S. recession in early 2020, leading to steep declines in the stock market. Between February 19, 2020 and March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 index fell 34% and the NASDAQ composite fell 30%. The stock market has rebounded sharply since the March 2020 market lows. Between March 23, 2020 and the end of November 2021, the Nasdaq composite gained 126% and the S&P 500 index gained 104%. Below is a series of visualizations that examine the performance of S&P 500 stocks in select industries during the period from the start of 2017 until the end of November 2021 (the visualization period). The visualizations show two charts. The bottom chart shows the cumulative S&P 500 index return since the start of 2017. The top chart shows a dynamic scatter plot depicting the returns and beta values of individual stocks.
Beta is a financial measure of a stock’s systematic risk, which is market risk exposure that cannot be mitigated through diversification. It is a measure of a stock’s expected return when the overall stock market rises or falls. Analysts estimate a stock’s beta value using regression analysis, where a stock’s return is the dependent variable, and the market portfolio return (typically the S&P 500 Index) is the explanatory variable. The beta values depicted in the visualizations were estimated using daily returns in a 12 month period. The estimates use the S&P 500 Index as the proxy for the market portfolio.
The returns and beta values in the visualizations are based on a moving 12 month period displayed on the right of the top chart. The 12 month period is also depicted graphically by the moving transparent rectangle in the lower chart. A stock’s beta value is estimated based on daily returns in the 12 month period. Each stock in the visualization is depicted by a bubble that is color-coded to indicate the stock’s industry. The bubbles are labeled with the stock’s symbol. The size of each bubble is proportional to the stock’s market capitalization. The bubble’s opacity is proportional to the stock’s average daily return volatility over the 12 month period. The stock’s return over the 12 month period is indicated by the bubble’s position on the x-axis. The stock’s beta value for the 12 month period is indicated by the bubble’s position on the y-axis. The vertical line in the dynamic scatter plot shows the return of the S&P 500 index in the 12 month period. The S&P 500 index return over the 12 month period is also displayed under “S&P 500 Return” to the right of the top chart.
The visualizations show that the rise in the stock market since March 2020 far outpaced the market’s growth before March 2020. The dynamic scatter plots also show significant clustering by industry where stocks in the same industry have similar beta values and 12 month returns compared to stocks in other industries. In addition, the visualizations show that, prior to March 2020, there was only a weak correlation between a stock’s beta value and return. However, after the market lows of March 2020, the visualizations show a strong positive relationship between beta and returns, implying significantly better market performance for high beta stocks than for low beta stocks. The positive relationship between beta and returns during the post-March 2020 period is remarkably consistent across industries and firms in the same industry.
Automobile Manufacturers; Electric Utilities; Semiconductors; Semiconductor Equipment
This visualization shows Tesla’ extraordinary stock performance during the visualization period. Between the start of 2017 and the end of November 2021, GM, Ford, and Tesla stocks gained 90%, 108%, and 2,748%, respectively. See below for the list of stocks and industries depicted in the visualization.
Industrial Machinery; Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; Packaged Foods & Meats
See below for the list of stocks and industries depicted in the visualization.
Household Products; Interactive Media & Services; Internet & Direct Marketing Retail; Systems Software; Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
This visualization shows the growth of Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft (GAFAM) stocks during the visualization period. Between the start of 2017 and the end of November 2021, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft stocks gained 269%, 368%, 182%, 506%, and 472%, respectively. During the same period, the S&P 500 index gained 104%. See below for the list of stocks and industries depicted in the visualization.
Automobile Manufacturers; Electric Utilities; Semiconductors; Semiconductor Equipment
Symbol | Security | Industry |
---|---|---|
F | Ford | Automobile Manufacturers |
GM | General Motors | Automobile Manufacturers |
TSLA | Tesla | Automobile Manufacturers |
LNT | Alliant Energy | Electric Utilities |
AEP | American Electric Power | Electric Utilities |
ED | Consolidated Edison | Electric Utilities |
D | Dominion Energy | Electric Utilities |
DUK | Duke Energy | Electric Utilities |
EIX | Edison International | Electric Utilities |
ETR | Entergy | Electric Utilities |
EVRG | Evergy | Electric Utilities |
FE | FirstEnergy | Electric Utilities |
PPL | PPL | Electric Utilities |
PEG | Public Service Enterprise Group | Electric Utilities |
SO | Southern Company | Electric Utilities |
WEC | WEC Energy Group | Electric Utilities |
AMAT | Applied Materials | Semiconductor Equipment |
KLAC | KLA Corporation | Semiconductor Equipment |
LRCX | Lam Research | Semiconductor Equipment |
TER | Teradyne | Semiconductor Equipment |
AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Semiconductors |
ADI | Analog Devices | Semiconductors |
AVGO | Broadcom | Semiconductors |
INTC | Intel | Semiconductors |
MCHP | Microchip Technology | Semiconductors |
MU | Micron Technology | Semiconductors |
MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Semiconductors |
NVDA | Nvidia | Semiconductors |
NXPI | NXP | Semiconductors |
QRVO | Qorvo | Semiconductors |
QCOM | Qualcomm | Semiconductors |
SWKS | Skyworks Solutions | Semiconductors |
TXN | Texas Instruments | Semiconductors |
XLNX | Xilinx | Semiconductors |
Industrial Machinery; Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; Packaged Foods & Meats
Symbol | Security | Industry |
---|---|---|
CMI | Cummins | Industrial Machinery |
DOV | Dover Corporation | Industrial Machinery |
FTV | Fortive | Industrial Machinery |
IEX | IDEX Corporation | Industrial Machinery |
ITW | Illinois Tool Works | Industrial Machinery |
PH | Parker-Hannifin | Industrial Machinery |
PNR | Pentair | Industrial Machinery |
SNA | Snap-on | Industrial Machinery |
SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Industrial Machinery |
GWW | W. W. Grainger | Industrial Machinery |
XYL | Xylem | Industrial Machinery |
APA | APA Corporation | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
COP | ConocoPhillips | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
CTRA | Coterra | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
DVN | Devon Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
FANG | Diamondback Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
EOG | EOG Resources | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
MRO | Marathon Oil | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
CPB | Campbell Soup | Packaged Foods & Meats |
CAG | Conagra Brands | Packaged Foods & Meats |
GIS | General Mills | Packaged Foods & Meats |
HRL | Hormel | Packaged Foods & Meats |
SJM | JM Smucker | Packaged Foods & Meats |
K | Kellogg's | Packaged Foods & Meats |
KHC | Kraft Heinz | Packaged Foods & Meats |
LW | Lamb Weston | Packaged Foods & Meats |
MKC | McCormick & Company | Packaged Foods & Meats |
MDLZ | Mondelez International | Packaged Foods & Meats |
HSY | The Hershey Company | Packaged Foods & Meats |
TSN | Tyson Foods | Packaged Foods & Meats |
Household Products; Interactive Media & Services; Internet & Direct Marketing Retail; Systems Software; Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Symbol | Security | Industry |
---|---|---|
CHD | Church & Dwight | Household Products |
CLX | Clorox | Household Products |
CL | Colgate-Palmolive | Household Products |
KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Household Products |
GOOG | Alphabet (Class C) | Interactive Media & Services |
MTCH | Match Group | Interactive Media & Services |
FB | Meta Platforms | Interactive Media & Services |
TWTR | Interactive Media & Services | |
AMZN | Amazon | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail |
BKNG | Booking Holdings | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail |
EBAY | eBay | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail |
ETSY | Etsy | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail |
EXPE | Expedia Group | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail |
FTNT | Fortinet | Systems Software |
MSFT | Microsoft | Systems Software |
NOW | ServiceNow | Systems Software |
AAPL | Apple | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |
HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |
HPQ | HP | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |
NTAP | NetApp | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |
STX | Seagate Technology | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |
WDC | Western Digital | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals |