Beta & stock returns by industry: Did the 2020 recession lead to a fundamental change in stock market behavior

Last updated: December 14, 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound effect on the U.S. economy and the stock market. The pandemic caused a brief but deep U.S. recession in early 2020, leading to steep declines in the stock market. Between February 19, 2020 and March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 index fell 34% and the NASDAQ composite fell 30%.  The stock market has rebounded sharply since the March 2020 market lows. Between March 23, 2020 and the end of November 2021, the Nasdaq composite gained 126% and the S&P 500 index gained 104%. Below is a series of visualizations that examine the performance of S&P 500 stocks in select industries during the period from the start of 2017 until the end of November 2021 (the visualization period). The visualizations show two charts. The bottom chart shows the cumulative S&P 500 index return since the start of 2017.  The top chart shows a dynamic scatter plot depicting the returns and beta values of individual stocks.

Beta is a financial measure of a stock’s systematic risk, which is market risk exposure that cannot be mitigated through diversification. It is a measure of a stock’s expected return when the overall stock market rises or falls. Analysts estimate a stock’s beta value using regression analysis, where a stock’s return is the dependent variable, and the market portfolio return (typically the S&P 500 Index) is the explanatory variable. The beta values depicted in the visualizations were estimated using daily returns in a 12 month period. The estimates use the S&P 500 Index as the proxy for the market portfolio.

The returns and beta values in the visualizations are based on a moving 12 month period displayed on the right of the top chart. The 12 month period is also depicted graphically by the moving transparent rectangle in the lower chart. A stock’s beta value is estimated based on daily returns in the 12 month period. Each stock in the visualization is depicted by a bubble that is color-coded to indicate the stock’s industry. The bubbles are labeled with the stock’s symbol. The size of each bubble is proportional to the stock’s market capitalization. The bubble’s opacity is proportional to the stock’s average daily return volatility over the 12 month period. The stock’s return over the 12 month period is indicated by the bubble’s position on the x-axis. The stock’s beta value for the 12 month period is indicated by the bubble’s position on the y-axis. The vertical line in the dynamic scatter plot shows the return of the S&P 500 index in the 12 month period. The S&P 500 index return over the 12 month period is also displayed under “S&P 500 Return” to the right of the top chart.

The visualizations show that the rise in the stock market since March 2020 far outpaced the market’s growth before March 2020. The dynamic scatter plots also show significant clustering by industry where stocks in the same industry have similar beta values and 12 month returns compared to stocks in other industries. In addition, the visualizations show that, prior to March 2020, there was only a weak correlation between a stock’s beta value and return. However, after the market lows of March 2020, the visualizations show a strong positive relationship between beta and returns, implying significantly better market performance for high beta stocks than for low beta stocks. The positive relationship between beta and returns during the post-March 2020 period is remarkably consistent across industries and firms in the same industry.

Automobile Manufacturers; Electric Utilities; Semiconductors; Semiconductor Equipment

This visualization shows Tesla’ extraordinary stock performance during the visualization period. Between the start of 2017 and the end of November 2021, GM, Ford, and Tesla stocks gained 90%, 108%, and 2,748%, respectively. See below for the list of stocks  and industries depicted in the visualization.

Industrial Machinery; Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; Packaged Foods & Meats

 See below for the list of stocks  and industries depicted in the visualization.

Household Products; Interactive Media & Services; Internet & Direct Marketing Retail; Systems Software; Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

This visualization shows the growth of Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft (GAFAM) stocks during the visualization period. Between the start of 2017 and the end of November 2021, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft stocks gained 269%, 368%, 182%, 506%, and 472%, respectively. During the same period, the S&P 500 index gained 104%.  See below for the list of stocks  and industries depicted in the visualization.

Automobile Manufacturers; Electric Utilities; Semiconductors; Semiconductor Equipment

SymbolSecurityIndustry
FFordAutomobile Manufacturers
GMGeneral MotorsAutomobile Manufacturers
TSLATeslaAutomobile Manufacturers
LNTAlliant EnergyElectric Utilities
AEPAmerican Electric PowerElectric Utilities
EDConsolidated EdisonElectric Utilities
DDominion EnergyElectric Utilities
DUKDuke EnergyElectric Utilities
EIXEdison InternationalElectric Utilities
ETREntergyElectric Utilities
EVRGEvergyElectric Utilities
FEFirstEnergyElectric Utilities
PPLPPLElectric Utilities
PEGPublic Service Enterprise GroupElectric Utilities
SOSouthern CompanyElectric Utilities
WECWEC Energy GroupElectric Utilities
AMATApplied MaterialsSemiconductor Equipment
KLACKLA CorporationSemiconductor Equipment
LRCXLam ResearchSemiconductor Equipment
TERTeradyneSemiconductor Equipment
AMDAdvanced Micro DevicesSemiconductors
ADIAnalog DevicesSemiconductors
AVGOBroadcomSemiconductors
INTCIntelSemiconductors
MCHPMicrochip TechnologySemiconductors
MUMicron TechnologySemiconductors
MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsSemiconductors
NVDANvidiaSemiconductors
NXPINXPSemiconductors
QRVOQorvoSemiconductors
QCOMQualcommSemiconductors
SWKSSkyworks SolutionsSemiconductors
TXNTexas InstrumentsSemiconductors
XLNXXilinxSemiconductors

Industrial Machinery; Oil & Gas Exploration & Production; Packaged Foods & Meats

SymbolSecurityIndustry
CMICumminsIndustrial Machinery
DOVDover CorporationIndustrial Machinery
FTVFortiveIndustrial Machinery
IEXIDEX CorporationIndustrial Machinery
ITWIllinois Tool WorksIndustrial Machinery
PHParker-HannifinIndustrial Machinery
PNRPentairIndustrial Machinery
SNASnap-onIndustrial Machinery
SWKStanley Black & DeckerIndustrial Machinery
GWWW. W. GraingerIndustrial Machinery
XYLXylemIndustrial Machinery
APAAPA CorporationOil & Gas Exploration & Production
COPConocoPhillipsOil & Gas Exploration & Production
CTRACoterraOil & Gas Exploration & Production
DVNDevon EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production
FANGDiamondback EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production
EOGEOG ResourcesOil & Gas Exploration & Production
MROMarathon OilOil & Gas Exploration & Production
OXYOccidental PetroleumOil & Gas Exploration & Production
PXDPioneer Natural ResourcesOil & Gas Exploration & Production
CPBCampbell SoupPackaged Foods & Meats
CAGConagra BrandsPackaged Foods & Meats
GISGeneral MillsPackaged Foods & Meats
HRLHormelPackaged Foods & Meats
SJMJM SmuckerPackaged Foods & Meats
KKellogg'sPackaged Foods & Meats
KHCKraft HeinzPackaged Foods & Meats
LWLamb WestonPackaged Foods & Meats
MKCMcCormick & CompanyPackaged Foods & Meats
MDLZMondelez InternationalPackaged Foods & Meats
HSYThe Hershey CompanyPackaged Foods & Meats
TSNTyson FoodsPackaged Foods & Meats

Household Products; Interactive Media & Services; Internet & Direct Marketing Retail; Systems Software; Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

SymbolSecurityIndustry
CHDChurch & DwightHousehold Products
CLXCloroxHousehold Products
CLColgate-PalmoliveHousehold Products
KMBKimberly-ClarkHousehold Products
GOOGAlphabet (Class C)Interactive Media & Services
MTCHMatch GroupInteractive Media & Services
FBMeta PlatformsInteractive Media & Services
TWTRTwitterInteractive Media & Services
AMZNAmazonInternet & Direct Marketing Retail
BKNGBooking HoldingsInternet & Direct Marketing Retail
EBAYeBayInternet & Direct Marketing Retail
ETSYEtsyInternet & Direct Marketing Retail
EXPEExpedia GroupInternet & Direct Marketing Retail
FTNTFortinetSystems Software
MSFTMicrosoftSystems Software
NOWServiceNowSystems Software
AAPLAppleTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HPEHewlett Packard EnterpriseTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HPQHPTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
NTAPNetAppTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
STXSeagate TechnologyTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
WDCWestern DigitalTechnology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals